Daily Forex Outlook - US GDP beats estimates

Posted by admin as Forex News

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY - 28th August (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was sold for most of the day as China stocks beat expectations and US GDP was confirmed at initial forecasts. US Q2 GDP was unrevised at -1.0% in a surprise to the market forecasting -1.5%. Weekly Jobless Claims at 570k vs. 562k forecast was slightly worse than expected but was overlooked as GDP data took precedence. Crude Oil Closed up .06 at .49. In US share markets, S&P ended +3 points (0.28%) at 1030, NASDAQ ended +3 points (0.16%) at 2027 and DOW JONES ended +37 points (+0.39%) at 9580. Looking ahead, August UoM Consumer Confidence is forecast at 64.5 vs. 66 previously.

The Euro (EUR) German inflation data finally broke the deadlock that sellers were facing and the market surged above 1.4300 to test 1.4400 in a very bullish breakout higher. Speculation that Asian central banks are holding large 1.3950-1.4450 no touch options could come into play later if the market can hold onto the 1.4400 handle. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4220 and a high of 1.4407 before closing at 1.4370. Looking ahead, August Business Climate forecast at -2.48 vs. -2.71 previously.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke lower in Asia as China stocks went down 2% and the 94 level offered little support. 93.20 was tested then but held firm and the market bounced with US stocks to end on a slightly firmer footing. Crosses were strong as AUD/JPY led the charge higher in New York. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.22 and a high of 94.15 before closing the day around 93.70 in the New York session. UPDATE July CPI forecast at -2.2% came in at as expected and July Unemployment forecast at 5.5% was weaker at 5.7%.

The Sterling (GBP) tested Wednesday’s low at 1.6160 but held firm then the market bounced as the USD weakened with higher stocks. UK business investment fell 10% in Q2 vs. a milder -3.6% forecast. GBP/JPY bounced off month lows at 151 Yen. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6154 and a high of 1.6305 before closing the day at 1.6290 in the New York session. Looking ahead, UK Q2 GDP is forecast to remain unrevised at -0.8%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the main gainer yesterday as Oil and stocks bounced and investor risk appetite roared back to life. Rumors that Central banks were buying added to the upside momentum with the pair rocketing to 0.8400 from 0.8250 in Asia. CAPEX was very strong at +3.3% vs. -5% forecast in Q2. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8239 and a high of 0.8418 before closing the US session at 0.8390.

Gold (XAU) was sold hard at the 0 level on the first attempt but regained losses to end just under the key level. Overall trading with a low of USD1 and high of USD1 before ending the New York session at USD9 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro - 1.4365
Initial support at 1.4201 (AUG 20 low) followed by 1.4046 (AUG 17 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4406 (Aug 27 high) followed by 1.4447 (Aug 5 high)

Yen - 93.65
Initial support is located at 93.10 (July 22 low) followed by 92.72 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.29 (August 18 high) followed by 96.73 (Aug 12 high).

Pound - 1.6285
Initial support at 1.6034 (Aug 20 low) followed by 1.5985 (Jul 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6444 (AUG 25 high) followed by 1.6546 (AUG 24 high).

Australian Dollar - 0.8400
Initial support at 0.8216 (AUG 21 low) followed by the 0.8126 (July 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8478 (Aug 14 high) followed by 0.8519 (Sept 22 high).

Gold - 950
Initial support at 930 (Aug 17 low) followed by 925 (July 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 960 (August 13 high) followed by 971 (Aug 6 high).